Since May, the rapid rise of steel prices has attracted attention from many parties. There will often be two or three price rises in a day, or even five or six price rises in a day. The highest price in some areas can rise by more than 500 yuan a day.
According to CCTV financial, as of the middle of May, the national steel market eight varieties of steel ton average price broke through 6,600 yuan, than the highest point in 2008 6,200 yuan higher than nearly 400 yuan, than the same period last year per ton rose 2800 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75%. In the interview, the reporter found that with domestic steel prices rise at the same time as international steel prices, and the rise is far higher than domestic steel prices.
According to data from the World Iron and Steel Association, in mid-May, the price of hot-rolled coil from steel mills in the Midwest of the United States was 1,644 US dollars per ton, equivalent to 10,570 yuan per ton, 4,800 yuan higher than the Chinese market, while the price of hot-rolled coil from Germany in the EU was 1,226 US dollars per ton, also 2,116 yuan higher than the Chinese market.
According to the data provided by the China Iron and Steel Association, so far, China’s steel price index has risen 23.95% than at the beginning of the year, while the same period, the international steel price index has risen 57.8%, the international market steel prices are significantly higher than the domestic.
What’s driving up the price of steel?
According to CCTV.com, the reporter learned from the China Iron and Steel Association data show that since this year, China’s economy continues to recover steadily, steel demand increased significantly, among which the construction industry increased by 49%, the manufacturing industry increased by 44%. In the international market, the global manufacturing PMI continued to improve, reaching 57.1% in April, remaining above 50% for 12 consecutive months.
Global economic recovery, driving world steel consumption growth. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of global crude steel production has turned from negative to positive, with 46 countries achieving positive growth, compared with only 14 countries last year. Global crude steel production rose 10 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the World Iron and Steel Association.
When it comes to steel prices, there is a special reason is related to the epidemic. In 2020, in order to deal with the epidemic, various countries around the world launched relevant stimulus policies to varying degrees to support economic development. Due to the overissuance of currencies in the US dollar zone and the euro zone, inflation intensified and transmitted and radiated to the world, leading to an overall rise in global commodity prices including steel.
Li Xinchuang, chief engineer of Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, said that the United States has launched a super-loose monetary policy since March 2020, with a total of more than $5 trillion in rescue plans put into the market, while the European Central Bank announced in late April that it would maintain a super-loose monetary policy to support economic recovery. Under inflationary pressure, emerging countries have also begun to passively raise interest rates.
Affected by this, starting from February, global grain, crude oil, gold, iron ore, copper, aluminum and other means of production prices rose across the board. In the case of iron ore, the CIF price for imported iron ore rose 165.6% to US $230.59 a tonne on May 12, up from US $86.83 a tonne last year. The price of iron ore has pushed up the cost of steel production further by driving up the price of all steel’s main ingredients, including coking coal, coke and scrap steel.
The China Iron and Steel Association said steel prices will not continue to rise sharply
According to the news of the China Iron and Steel Association (WeChat ID), the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) released a report Thursday, pointing out that due to the rapid and large rise in steel prices since April, the downstream steel industry such as shipbuilding and home appliances cannot afford the continuous high consolidation of steel prices, and it is difficult for the steel prices to continue to rise significantly in the later period.
China Iron and Steel Association, April, the domestic market demand for steel, steel prices continue to rise, and the increase than last month has increased. Since entering May, affected by market expectations, “51″ steel prices further increased after the festival, but the third week there was a sharp fall.
China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) expects steel prices in the domestic market to rise sharply after the May Day holiday due to rising international commodity prices, loose global liquidity and rising market expectations. Late by the expected decline and the impact of increased national regulation, steel prices are expected to gradually stabilize after adjustment.
China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) expects steel prices in the domestic market to rise sharply after the May Day holiday due to rising international commodity prices, loose global liquidity and rising market expectations. Late by the expected decline and the impact of increased national regulation, steel prices are expected to gradually stabilize after adjustment.
The China Iron and Steel Association said that in the international market, this round of price increase is the result of a combination of multiple factors, including the gradual recovery of the global economy, stronger market expectations, abundant liquidity and speculation. From the domestic market situation, the supply and demand of iron and steel products did not appear at both ends of the overall, trend changes, steel prices do not have a sustained substantial rise in the basis. Influenced by the policy measures of “three red lines” and “two concentration” of land supply in the construction industry, and the upcoming high temperature season of plum rain in South China, infrastructure construction will slow down, as well as the shortage of automobile chips and the off-season of home appliance industry, steel demand may weaken to a certain degree, but both ends of supply and demand are basically stable.
According to China Iron and Steel Association statistics, in early May, the key statistics of steel enterprises crude steel daily (with caliber) month-on-month growth of 0.75%, estimated national crude steel production month-on-month growth of 0.40%. From the supply side of the situation, iron and steel to cut overcapacity “look back”, crude steel production reduction and environmental supervision work is about to start, late crude steel production is difficult to increase substantially. From the demand side of the situation, due to the rapid rise in steel prices since April, a large range, shipbuilding, home appliances and other downstream steel industry is difficult to withstand steel prices continued high consolidation, the late steel prices are difficult to continue to rise substantially.
China Iron and Steel Association also said that the impact of the domestic market demand growth, steel inventories have continued to decline. In the first ten days of May, from the social inventory, the social inventory of 5 kinds of steel in 20 cities 12.49 million tons, down 3.0% month-on-month, consecutive quarter-on-month decline, down 2.49 million tons year-on-year, down 16.6%.
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来源：每日经济新闻综合自央视财经、央视网、中国钢铁工业协会
本文来源：每日经济新闻
Post time: 26-05-21